Preparing for War?: Moscow Facing an Arc of Crisis

The author(s) of this text maintain(s) that the Russian state is mobilizing. Leadership is moving the country onto a war footing to address what Moscow sees as an arc of crisis around Russia and a period of great turbulence in international affairs. Risks are perceived in Moscow to include the possibility of the outbreak of war and regional instability driven, from Russia’s perspective, by Western-led wars of regime change that could directly affect the Motherland.
Mobilization has been under way for some time: a process of consolidation and preparation.

The author(s) state(s) that Russian leadership sees war as a test of society, and despite its actions during the Ukraine crisis and in Syria, understands Russia isn’t yet fully prepared for such a test. According to the author, this is the case because the Russian system, although in some respects powerful, is often dysfunctional. Russia also bears a heavy Soviet inheritance, including limited and decrepit infrastructure, and the military has endured many years of underfunding and neglect. Change thus becomes essential to survival.

ITEM AVAILABLE DATE 01/31/17.

Military educators, leadership, veterans, ROTC instructors, Congressional Leaders and Members, civilian and military analysts would be interested in this publication.