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International Energy Outlook 2013 With Projections to 2040

International Energy Outlook 2013 With Projections to 2040
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International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO2013) projects increased world consumption of energy from all fuel sources through 2040

Some key findings:

World energy consumption increases from 524 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2010 to 820 quadrillion Btu in 2040. The increase in world energy use is largely in the developing world, where growth is driven by strong, long-term economic growth. Half of the total world increase in energy consumption is attributed to China and India.

Fossil fuels are expected to continue supplying much of the energy used worldwide. Although petroleum and other liquids remain the largest source of energy, the liquid fuels share of world marketed energy consumption falls from 34 percent in 2010 to 28 percent in 2040. Renewable energy and nuclear power are the world's fastest-growing energy sources, each increasing by 2.5 percent per year; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040.

Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook. Global natural gas consumption grows by 1.7 percent per year. Increasing supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane support growth in projected worldwide gas use. Coal grows faster than liquid fuels consumption until after 2030, due to increases in China's consumption of coal and tepid growth in liquid fuels demand attributed to (1) slow growth in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries, and (2) high sustained oil prices.

The International Energy Outlook 2013 (IEO2013) projects that world energy consumption will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040. Total world energy use rises from 524 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in 2010 to 630 quadrillion Btu in 2020 and to 820 quadrillion Btu in 2040 (Figure 1). Much of the growth in energy consumption occurs in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD),2 known as non-OECD, where demand is driven by strong, long-term economic growth. Energy use in non-OECD countries increases by 90 percent; in OECD countries, the increase is 17 percent. The IEO2013 Reference case does not incorporate prospective legislation or policies that might affect energy markets.

Other IEO2013 highlights:

The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $112 per barrel in 2012, and EIA's July 2013 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects averages of $105 per barrel in 2013 and $100 per barrel in 2014. With prices expected to increase in the long term, however, the world oil price in real 2011 dollars reaches $106 per barrel in 2020 and $163 per barrel in 2040.

Almost 80 percent of the projected increase in renewable electricity generation is fueled by hydropower and wind power. The contribution of wind energy, in particular, has grown rapidly over the past decade and this trend continues into the future. Of the 5.4 trillion kilowatthours of new renewable generation added over the projection period, 52 percent is attributed to hydroelectric power and 28 percent to wind. Most of the growth in hydroelectric generation (82 percent) occurs in the non-OECD countries, while more than half of the growth in wind generation (52 percent) occurs in the OECD countries.

Electricity generation from nuclear power worldwide increases from 2.6 trillion kilowatthours in 2010 to 5.5 trillion kilowatthours in 2040, as concerns about energy security and greenhouse gas emissions support the development of new nuclear generating capacity. Factors underlying the IEO2013 nuclear power projections are mixed. They include the consequences of the March 2011 disaster at Fukushima Daiichi, Japan; planned retirements of nuclear capacity in OECD Europe under current policies; and continued strong growth of nuclear power in non-OECD Asia.

Given current policies and regulations limiting fossil fuel use, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rise from about 31 billion metric tons in 2010 to 36 billion metric tons in 2020 and then to 45 billion metric tons in 2040, a 46 percent increase over the 30-year span.

About the Author:

Prepared by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.  EIA is the nation's premier source of energy information and, by law, its data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government.

EIA conducts a comprehensive data collection program that covers the full spectrum of energy sources, end uses, and energy flows. EIA also prepares informative energy analyses, monthly short-term forecasts of energy market trends, and long-term U.S. and international energy outlooks. EIA disseminates its data, analyses, and other products primarily through its website and customer contact center.

The Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 established EIA as the primary federal government authority on energy statistics and analysis, building upon systems and organizations first established in 1974 following the oil market disruption of 1973. Located in Washington, DC, EIA is an organization of about 370 federal employees, with an annual budget in Fiscal Year 2013 of $99.5 million.

Table of Contents


World Energy Demand and economic outlook
Liquid Fuels
Natural Gas
Industrial Sector Energy conumption
Transportation Sector Energy consumption
Energy-related Carbon dioxide emissions
Data Tables


IEO2013 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers.

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Energy Dept., Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Analysis
2013: 308 p.
Key Phrases:
  • DOE EIA 0484 2013
  • Annual Reports, Energy Department
  • Hydroelectric Power
  • Oil Industries
  • Natural Gas
  • Oil
  • Nuclear Power
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