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From Frozen Ties to Strategic Engagement: U.S.-Iranian Relationship in 2030

Title:
From Frozen Ties to Strategic Engagement: U.S.-Iranian Relationship in 2030
Format:
Paperback
USA Price: 
Stock:
Low stock
GPO Stock Number:
008-000-01134-6
ISBN:
9781584876793
Description

In Search of "the Grand Bargain" Between Iran and the U.S.

The nuclear talks between Iran and P5+1 ( the five United Nations [UN] Security Council nuclear powers: the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China, plus Germany) following most stringent sanctions against Iran to date have opened new prospects for relaxation of tensions between Tehran and the West and for a U.S.-Iranian détente in the long run. The coming to power of new presidential administrations in both the United States and Iran, the additional sanctions, major geo-economic and geo-political trends, and U.S.-Iranian economic and security cooperation imperatives all contributed to these dynamics.

Some view the talks as a new beginning in U.S.-Iranian ties, which could herald the emergence of a U.S.-Iranian strategic relationship in the next 15 years. This work has developed three such possible strategic relationships: 1) strategic engagement involving a nuclear weapons-capable Iran; 2) comprehensive cooperation following a “Grand Bargain”; 3) incremental strategic engagement after a nuclear deal. These relationships deliberately focus on constructive engagement, skipping the status quo and the strike on Iran as two other possible outcomes. If they pull it off by 2030, a U.S.-Iranian détente would advance external integration of the region, aiding the U.S. strategy of fostering global connectivity. It would promote resolution of conflicts and development and reconstruction of countries ravaged by wars and sectarian violence. It would also enable Washington to deploy select military assets to other locales to address other challenges while repurposing remaining forces to face new threats in the Greater Middle East.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

ROMAN MUZALEVSKY works for iJet International Inc., performing research, reporting, and analysis of global, regional, and national security affairs, risks, and trends, as well as providing incident response and crisis management services. He is also a  Contributing Analyst on Eurasian Affairs and Security at Jamestown Foundation. Previously, he worked for CSM Solutions Inc., National Democratic Institute, DFID Public Finance Reform Project, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, security consultancy Wikistrat, and global strategy advisory consultancy Krull Corp. in the United States and Central Asia. He conducted research on security issues in the post-Soviet space at the Center for Political and Military Analysis at Hudson Institute as part of the George F. Jewett Foundation Fellowship Award for Projects on the Study and Practice of Grand Strategies. Mr. Muzalevsky has authored dozens of articles on Eurasian and global affairs, geopolitics, security, and strategic trends. In 2013, he authored a monograph, titled, Central Asia’s Shrinking Connectivity Gap: Implications for U.S. Strategy, published by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College. He received his M.A. in international affairs with concentration in security and strategy studies from Yale University and has a diploma in international affairs from the International Ataturk Ala-Too University in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia.

Other titles pertaining to this topic include the following:

Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969-1976, V. XXVII, Iran, Iraq, 1973-1976 can be found at this link: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/044-000-02650-3?ctid=1040

The Iranian Puzzle Piece: Understanding Iran In The Global Context can be found at this link: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/008-020-01591-1?ctid=1040

Iran: A Country Study (Hardcover) can be found at this link: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/products/sku/030-000-00297-1?ctid=1040

Iran resources collection can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/international-foreign-affairs/middle-e...

Table of Contents

Table of Contents:

Forewod……………………………………..…………......................................................vii
About the Author .................................................................................................................. xi
Summary………...…………………………….…….......................................................... xiii
1. Introduction: The Time Has Come …....................….......................................................…1
2. Forces Driving U.S.-Iranian Détente...……….....……........................................................ 9
        New Administrations and the Potential for Change............................................................9
         The Bite of Sanctions as the Stimulus for Negotiations ……...........................................14
         Geo-economic Trends and the Merits of Economic Engagement ....................................18
         Geopolitical Dynamics and Security Cooperation Imperatives ........................................23
3. U.S.-Iranian Strategic Relationship in 2030……………………….................................…37
         Strategic Engagement Ensues after Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapons Capability.................38
         Comprehensive Cooperation Follows after Parties “U”-Turn and Reach a “G” Bargain ..41
          Incremental Strategic Engagement Emerges as Sides Continue Advancing Ties ………. 43
          The Three Alternative Futures—Likelihood and Plausibility Assessment ........................46
4. Cultivating and Preparing for Strategic Change....................................................................67
          Steering Relationships with Key Players……………………………………………....67
          Enhancing Regional Economic Development.................................................................76
          Adapting Regional Military Posture…...........................................................................82
          Advancing Regional Institutional Capacity......................................................................93
5. Conclusion: What is Next? Prospects, Vision, Steps ….................................................... 107

Audience

This text’s primary focus is on the U.S.-Iranian strategic relationship and negotiations.  Political scientists, international relations scholars, U.S. foreign diplomats, lawmakers, policy analysts, and military strategists may be interested in this work. Students in undergraduate international affairs programs may find this book helpful with their Middle East studies curriculum, especially concerning foreign diplomacy matters.

Product Details

Availability Details:
In Stock
USA Price:
$18.00
International Price:
$25.20
Publisher:
Defense Dept., Army, Strategic Studies Institute; and Army War College
Author:
  • Muzalevsky, Roman
Year/Pages:
2015: 127 p.
Notes:
Back cover has a barcode and 3 QR codes.
Key Phrases:
  • Iran
  • United States Iranian Relationship in 2030
  • United States, Foreign relations, Iran
  • Iran, Foreign relations, United States
  • United States, Foreign relations, Iran, Forecasting
  • Iran, Foreign relations, United States, Forecasting
Weight:
0.5
Quantity Price:
Discount
Cover:
Paper
Unit of Issue (US):
1
Unit of Issue (Non-US):
1
Item available Date:
06/24/2015
Last Status Update:
03/09/2017
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