China Maritime Studies Number 16, Chinese Nationalism and the "Gray Zone"

This volume examines the role of popular nationalism in China’s maritime conduct. Analysis of nine case studies of assertive but ostensibly nonmilitary actions by which the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has advanced its position in the South and East China Seas in recent years reveals little compelling evidence of popular sentiment driving decision-making. While some regard for public opinion demonstrably shapes Beijing’s propaganda strategies on maritime issues, and sometimes its diplomatic practices as well, the imperative for Chinese leaders to satisfy popular nationalism is at most a contributing factor to policy choices they undertake largely on the basis of other considerations of power and interest. Where surges of popular nationalism have been evident, they have tended to follow after the PRC maritime actions in question, suggesting instead that Chinese authorities channeled public opinion to support existing policy.

Each case study in this volume represents a typical instance of the PRC’s increased maritime activities in the “gray zone” of coercion below the threshold of overt military confrontation.

List of Figures vii

Introduction: Assessing Public Opinion’s Impact on PRC Foreign Policy 1

CASE STUDY 1

White Hulls and “Special Operations” 11

CASE STUDY 2

The Impeccable Incident, 2009: The United States Goes Public 18

CASE STUDY 3

Sino-Indonesian Fishing Clashes, 2010–16: Public Opinion and Policy Contestation. 23

CASE STUDY 4

Diaoyu Fishing Clash, 2010: A Nationalist Hijacking? 29

CASE STUDY 5

Reed Bank and the Sino-Vietnamese Cable Cuttings, 2011  39

CASE STUDY 6

Scarborough Shoal, 2012: Cumulative Criticism and Strategic Channeling  50

CASE STUDY 7

The Diaoyu Nationalization, 2012: A Nationalist Feedback Loop? 58

CASE STUDY 8

Second Thomas Shoal, 2013–14: Public Opinion Windfall 65

CASE STUDY 9

The HYSY 981 Incident, 2014: Keeping Nationalism on the Sidelines 71

Conclusion:

Policy Implications 76

About the Author 100

This resource describing China’s use of maritime power would be of interest to U.S. policymakers, military leadership, especially U.S. Naval officers, foreign affairs specialists, and other government officials. In addition, this may be a valuable resource for students and others studying China’s emergence as a military super power.